PENILAIN KETIDAKPASTIAN DATA MODEL PERUBAHAN IKLIM DENGAN METODE CDFDM DI WILAYAH SUMATERA BARAT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/js.14.2.51-72.2017Abstrak
Dampak perubahan iklim yang terjadi pada suatu wilayah sangat tergantung sensitivitas faktor lokal dalam merespon perubahan iklim global yang terjadi, sehingga sangat penting untuk melakukan koreksi data perubahan iklim global dengan data observasi di lokasi. CDFDM merupakan salah satu metode koreksi bias yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan koreksi tersebut. Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui ketidakpastian (uncertainty) data curah hujan, suhu maksimum dan suhu minimum hasil downscaling dari lima model GCMs, yaitu MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR dan MRI-CGCM3 di wilayah Sumatera Barat. Data yang digunakan terdiri dari dua kelompok utama: data model GCMs dan observasi. Data observasi bersumber dari stasiun pengamatan BMKG Sumatera Barat dalam periode waktu 1981-2015. Untuk mengetahui ketidakpastian antara dua kelompok data digunakan metode PBIAS, MAE dan RMSE. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa CDFDM dapat mengurangi terjadinya bias antara data GCMs dan data Observasi ditunjukan dengan nilai bias yang lebih kecil. Namun besarnya kesalahan (magnitude error) tetap tidak dapat terkoreksi, ditunjukan oleh nilai RMSE dan MAE yang lebih besar setelah dilakukan koreksi. Dari kelima model telihat bahwa model MPI-ESM-LR dan MPI-ESM-MR memiliki performa terbaik dalam memproyeksikan data curah hujan dan suhu udara minimum. Sedangkan untuk suhu udara maksimum, selain kedua model tersebut model MIROC-ESM dan MIROC-ESM-CHEM, juga mempunyai tingkat performa yang hampir sama, baik di wilayah dataran rendah maupun dataran tinggi Sumatera Barat pada periode data tersebut
Kata kunci : uncertainty, GCMs, bias koreksi, CDFDM, Sumatera Barat
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